Infectious diseases have had important impacts and influences in human history. Diseases such as the Spanish flu or the bubonic plague occupy a notable position in history. Disease spread models are used to predict the outcomes of an epidemic. These models are used to calculate the impact of an infectious disease, the funding needed for mass vaccinations, and data for public health departments. The first mathematical model of infectious diseases was created by Daniel Bernoulli in 1766. This model was used to predict the outcome of inoculation against smallpox disease. In the modern world, these models are created using various software programs. The reason I chose this topic is because I have previously worked on some modeling simulations. My father also works in the healthcare industry, so this topic seemed very interesting to me. Predicting the outcomes of infectious epidemics can save thousands of lives and millions of dollars. In the healthcare industry, accuracy and reliability are very important. In this project the work function of the SIR epidemic model and some of its derivatives will be explored along with some theorems about such models. The SIR model is the fundamental model of almost all modern epidemic models. The SIR model is the most widely used disease spread model in the world. Furthermore, it is a simple epidemic model whose mathematics is commensurate with our class. SIR Model The model was created by WO Kermack and AG McKendrick in 1927. The SIR model has three compartments: susceptible, infected and removed. S: denotes the number of individuals who are not infected with the disease. These people are vulnerable to the disease.I: represents the number of individuals who have been infected. These people can transfer the disease to... middle of paper ......if we use one of these three models for malaria the predictions would be wrong. Malaria is not transmitted by air or water, but is transmitted by mosquitoes or by the blood of an infected individual. The main mathematical concept underlying SIR models are differential equations. Charts are created by computer programs that use mathematical algorithms. The last model I explained is the most accurate model among all three models. However, it also has some missing points, for example the mortality rate due to disease is not included but it is a very important parameter. Improving the SIR model and its successors requires the help of doctors and healthcare specialists. Creating an epidemic model requires a synergy between programmers, mathematicians and healthcare professionals. However, creating an accurate model requires financial support and hard-working experts.
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