1221615Data Analysis and Interpretation5.1 Introduction: This study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock returns of the Indian banking sector. This study measures the change in bank stock returns against economic variables such as the consumer price index (CPI) and the exchange rate (ex rate). The CPI is a measure of inflation; The exchange rate is the measurement of the Indian Rupee (INR) against foreign currencies such as USD, SGD and JPY. The data collection of the study is based on secondary data. Data for the variables (CPI, exchange rate) were obtained from the RBI website. The monthly share price data of the 5 banks (HDFC Bank, AXIS Bank, ICICI Bank, IDBI Bank and YES Bank) was obtained from the NSE websites. The data for the study was taken for a period of 36 months, i.e. the most recent data of 3 years, from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2011, to measure the impact of the chosen variables on the stock returns of banks, post-recession . Data for all variables are monthly. Studies such as Ibrahim (1999), Patra and Poshakwale (2006) and Liow et al. (2006) capture long-term movements in volatility using monthly returns to avoid spurious correlation problems. The choice of banks is driven by the fact that they are listed companies in the NSE F&O segment. The statistical package used is the Windows 7 version of MS EXCEL. A simple regression method is used to analyze the co-movements between the dependent and independent variables. 5.2 Study Research Gap: The world stock market always deals with currency trading. Because of this factor, we expect the exchange rate to be negatively related to bank stock returns. Therefore, we assume that when a country's currency rises, it will be...... half of the paper...... i.e. less than 0.5. and it is even negative for IDBI bank and HDFC. Therefore there is no significant relationship between the 2 variables. Conclusion: So from the analysis we can conclude that inflation has an impact on bank stock returns, but to a very small extent. Therefore, the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative hypothesis is accepted, i.e. that there is a significant impact of inflation on the bank's stock returns. furthermore, the values of the F statistic and the probability values of both independent variables, i.e. the impact of exchange rates and inflation, show a positive relationship with bank stock returns. The reasons why bank stock returns do not have much impact from the exchange rate and inflation could be due to the fact that many other factors could influence bank stock returns, which could be internal or external to the banks .
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